Recently, the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has become the focus of global attention. Pelosi did not mention Taiwan in her August Asia visit itinerary, but despite repeated warnings from mainland China, she arrived in Taipei on the evening of August 2 on a special plane after her visit to Malaysia. Although Pelosi insisted on showing so-called "firm support" to certain forces in Taiwan, the Chinese military immediately launched an unprecedented military exercise in the waters around Taiwan to swear sovereignty over the islands. Beijing announced sanctions on the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker and her family, and canceled or suspended eight Sino-U.S. cooperation in military, judicial, anti-drug and climate fields. Pelosi probably did not expect such consequences when she embarked on this "willful" journey.
In fact, the anger of the ancient Eastern Kingdom is understandable. China has never given up its sovereignty over Taiwan in its history, and has recovered the island from foreign and separatist forces four times. On December 1, 1943, the "Cairo Declaration" issued by China, the United States, and the United Kingdom reaffirmed that Taiwan is an inalienable territory of China, and was recognized by the vast majority of countries in the international community, forming the mainstream consensus of "one China". The three joint communiques signed by China and the United States are the commitment of the United States to uphold the "one China" principle. Today, Pelosi's reckless move is a blatant breach of commitment, a blatant trampling on China's sovereignty and provocation of the "one China" principle. Although she is not the first sitting U.S. leader to visit Taiwan in 26 years, the White House has tried to reassure Beijing by saying "there's no need to be nervous about Pelosi's visit." But imagine that if China ignores the warning and insists on expressing "firm support" for California and Texas, can the United States be indifferent?
There are calculations and considerations behind Pelosi's insistence on visiting Taiwan. Since the Biden administration came to power, it has been unable to solve domestic inflation, racial discrimination, frequent shootings and other contradictions, and the voter approval rate has fallen below 30%. That puts Democrats at risk in the upcoming midterm elections and the Democrats is likely to lose their House majority. And Pelosi, who will leave office in three months, is also riddled with scandals. The Speaker of the House and her husband, Paul, obtained 56% of stock returns in 2020 by using inside information, while Buffett only had 26%, and she was ridiculed by the investment community as " God of Stocks on Capitol Hill". Just as Pelosi landed in Taiwan, Paul was arraigned for drunk driving and possession of drugs. Moreover, according to multiple US media reports, Pelosi's son was suspected of multiple frauds and bribery, his brother was suspected of rape, and his father withdrew from the Maryland gubernatorial race due to rumors of close ties to the Mafia. Under this circumstance, the Democratic Party is in urgent need of votes, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives is in urgent need of the last political capital. Taiwan has contributed US$94 million. And the topic of China is the "last consensus" in today's "polarized" political environment in the United States. It can be seen in the joint statement issued by 26 Republicans including McConnell, which ultimately contributed to this gamble, which was more symbolic than substance.
Although U.S. Secretary of State Blinken quickly made a statement afterwards, saying that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was a "personal act", it is difficult to explain why the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier battle group was mobilized into the South China Sea and Pelosi was escorted by fighter jets when transferring to Taiwan. But this is not the crux of the problem. In fact, as the only country in the world that may be able to help the United States to get out of the quagmire of inflation, the White House and Pelosi may have to consider how to bear more counterattacks from the East due to their dangerous action of challenging China’s bottom line at this time. The gamble seemed doomed from the start.